Analysis: A new party of ANC dissidents and a president fighting corruption charges may prompt some electoral surprises

On 22 April South Africa’s most important elections since the founding of its democracy in 1994 will test whether the ruling African National Congress (ANC) can hold on to its mass support built up during the liberation struggle. It faces serious opposition from former loyalists in the shape of the new Congress of the People (COPE).


As many poor South Africans grew disappointed with the ANC’s record on jobs, social services and corruption, the party has become mired in infighting. The victor of that infighting – ANC presidential candidate Jacob Zuma – will win the election but also has to rebuild the party’s credibility with its core constituencies and reunite it. To have a hope of succcess in this, Zuma will have to win an impressive share of the vote.


This year’s election could mean the end of some established parties, lead to a new main opposition party and create new political coalitions. Voter turnout has been falling steadily: from 80% in 1994 to just 48% in 2004. However, this year voter registration among the under-30s has soared.


A new generation of voters, who have not experienced the ANC as a liberation movement and the religious-like devotion that comes with it, will go to the polls in April with unpredictable consequences. 


It will also be an election of political comebacks. Veteran anti-apartheid campaigner Allan Boesak is back in the ring despite his conviction for corrupt mismanagement of aid funds: he has been nominated as COPE’s premier candidate for the Western Cape.


Most dramatic is the return of Winnie Madikizela Mandela to frontline politics. Her massive following in the townships, convictions for kidnapping and corruption notwithstanding, will earn her a prominent place in Jacob Zuma’s government. Madikizela Mandela was one of the five most popular ANC members standing for the ANC’s candidates’ list of parliamentary candidates. 


After the ball is over


The coalition behind Zuma is united only on winning the election. Zuma’s biggest challenges will come after inauguration. He will have to satisfy the competing demands of the unions and communists on the one hand, and the opportunists, black economic empowerment oligarchs and social conservatives on the other.


Another problem will be South Africa’s straightened economic circumstances. This year GDP growth is forecast to fall to 1.2% and is unlikely to recover beyond 3% next year, despite the hoped-for World Cup bonanza. This means people hoping for increased social spending and public investment programmes in job creation are likely to be disappointed.


And the sharp fall in the value of companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange will threaten the viability of several black economic empowerment deals and the financial position of the oligarchs who benefited from them. So more problems loom for future president Zuma’s patronage network. 
Finally there is the awkward matter of the National Prosecuting Authority’s corruption charges against Zuma. Without political intervention, that case is due to start in August, just four months into his presidency.