This country profile was published in November 2008 in our annual 'Africa in 2009' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2010' will be on sale 23 November 2009.

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With President Denis Sassou-Nguesso preparing for re-election in 2009, it is doubtful anyone could plausibly challenge the man who has dominated the political scene since his forceful return to power in 1997. The former grand figureheads of the exiled opposition are today enfeebled and marginalised: the ageing former president Pascal Lissouba has seen his once broadly-based Union Panafricaine pour la Démocratie Sociale fragment into rivalling factions. Previous senior figures in his government, such as Victor Tamba-Tamba and Joachim Yhombi-Opango, have returned home after reaching accommodations with the president.


Also allied with Sassou-Nguesso is the founder of the Mouvement Congolais pour la Démocratie et le Développement Intégrale (MCDDI), Bernard Kolélas. Some of Kolélas’ former supporters and aides have formed a breakaway exile movement of their own, under the leadership of Paulin Makaya. The MCDDI has been allowed a few seats in parliament, but its influence is minimal. Overall, the president has made few concessions in securing deals with his former opponents, and his control over decision-making and the power structure remains complete. The opposition has yet to establish significant momentum. The government will maintain tight control over the electoral process and independent observers already question the validity of the electoral roll. The parliamentary elections of 2007 were marred by irregularities. Even in the case of a free and fair vote, there must be doubt whether opponents could make serious headway against the president’s all-powerful political machine.


The president’s strength has been further reinforced by the oil price boom of recent years, which has poured income into government coffers. This has given Congo the funds needed to negotiate a settlement with the mainly American ‘vulture fund’ creditors – who had bought up slices of its old debt at a huge discount on the secondary market and then launched legal actions in a bid to force the government to pay up. While ministers have been announcing huge upward revisions in recurrent budget spending, the Brazzaville elite has also been engaging in lavish property development.


After repeatedly drifting ‘off-track’ in a series of IMF programmes, mainly for failures to apply adequate discipline and transparency in the management of oil income, the country submitted itself to a new staff-monitored programme in the first half of 2008, paving the way for a full-status medium-term Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility – a vital prerequisite for access to full debt relief and fresh outside aid for development.


Central to the new programme is an overhaul of the management of oil revenue, to control more tightly the flow of oil sales income through the Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) and ensure that it all does reach the government treasury. For despite the upsurge in income over recent years, most ordinary Congolese continue to live in difficult conditions. As development has not been a priority since the mid-1990s, public services and infrastructure in most rural areas are badly run-down. Real GDP growth figures of 9.1% in 2008 and a potential 12.1% in 2009 – subject to oil price movements – largely reflect the performance of the oil sector and are not significantly translated into domestic output, employment or an expansion of essential social services.