Peace at a price
After years of uncertainty and tension, the prospects for political stability have at least slightly improved since the May 2008 ceasefire signed between the government and the Forces Nationales de Libération (FNL) rebels and the subsequent return to Bujumbura of FNL leader Agathon Rwasa. As a result, Burundi can now begin to prepare for electoral campaigning with more confidence.

A house divided against itself
The traditional divide between the islands’ federal government and the local governments on Grande Comore, Mohéli, and Anjouan dominated Comorian politics in 2008. The federal presidency rotates between the islands, but battles between the islands and federal government are a mainstay of Comorian politics.


Controlling the chokepoints
Djibouti’s principal asset is its strategic location at the junction of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Given the international concern about rampant piracy in the latter, fuelled by insecurity and poverty in Somalia, it is an asset that seems likely to become even more valued in the years to come.

No changes for the hermit king
Eritrea’s prolonged stand-off with Ethiopia – following the fiercely-fought border wars around the turn of the millennium – is often interpreted as President Issayas Afewerki’s way of focusing the population’s attention on an outside enemy and thus as a diversion from the need for internal reforms and democratic elections.

Strength amidst adversity
Capitalising on the power of incumbency, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has managed to see off the opposition’s threats to its authority over the last two years. But the government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seems unable to extract itself from the more difficult and dangerous business of fighting rebel groups in the Ogaden and over the long border with Somalia.

The economy defies the politics
In an indication of how eager Nairobi’s politicians are to return to business as usual, after ethnic violence and protests took the country to the edge of civil war, their biggest preoccupation seems to be positioning around the 2012 presidential elections.

Trying to outrun the past
The next stage of Rwanda’s post-genocide political transformation comes against the backdrop of legislative elections in September 2008, after which the National Assembly was able to boast it has more women (55% of its MPs) than any parliament in the world.

More twists to the crisis
Somalia has continued its freefall into armed violence, political collapse and humanitarian crisis. It is now considered by many as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, the worst instance of state failure, the most corrupt environment, the top site for piracy and the most dangerous place for aid workers.

A president and a prosecutor
Northern Sudan’s diverse and once strong democratic opposition is now devastated by inertia and the regime’s skill at divide-and-rule. However, legislative elections are due in 2009, the first since the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Kikwete keeps up momentum
By 2009, after three years in power, President Jakaya Kikwete will want to ensure his continuation in office in elections scheduled for October 2010. Kikwete’s popularity is not as high as it was a year ago but he is widely expected to win a second and last five-year term.

The movement keeps on moving
The apparent determination of President Yoweri Museveni to hold on to power for the indefinite future will not prevent further rounds of political and regional competition within Uganda in 2009.