Country Profile: NAMIBIA

Southern Africa

This country profile was published in November 2009 in our annual 'Africa in 2010' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2011' will be on sale in November 2010.

President Hifikepunye  Pohamba is certain to be re-elected for a second term with a large majority in late November 2009 elections. As The Africa Report went to press, the ruling South West African Peoples’ Organisation (SWAPO) was also set to retain control of the National Assembly. SWAPO has closed ranks around Pohamba and, to avoid another damaging leadership struggle, has chosen party vice-president Hage Geingob as its candidate for the national presidency in 2014, since the constitution limits the president to two terms. 

Namibia Tensions are unlikely to subside between SWAPO’s formerly exiled leadership – the predominant force in the cabinet since independence – and younger, more ideological members now supported by Namibia’s first President Sam Nujoma.  Nujoma supporters secured control of the party as key  opponents left to form the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) in late 2007. SWAPO MPs in the new parliament are likely to be younger and more outspokenly radical, which may spell trouble for the health of the hard-won multiparty democracy. However, if the RDP does well in the northern Oshivambo community, SWAPO could lose its two-thirds majority in the Assembly. The RDP seems certain to come in ahead of its opposition party  rivals, the deeply-divided Congress of Democrats and the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance.  

SWAPO is seen by many as having become over-powerful, despite the constitution’s clear separation of powers. The government’s unwillingness to modify provisions in a new communications bill — which allows the interception of all electronic communications by the National Central Intelligence Service without a court order and bans encryption to safeguard personal data — was widely criticised as infringing fundamental freedoms and condemned as unconstitutional by Namibia’s ombudsman in September. Pohamba said he would make it a priority to combat  corruption, but there has been little effective action in prosecuting known offenders. 

The government has yet to approve a draft black economic empowerment (BEE) bill, although BEE provisions are already observed in the financial sector and some parts of the mining industry. A  commitment to a South African-style scorecard  system, including provisions for equity transfers to BEE entities, is likely to prove controversial, especially for foreign mining firms. Land resettlement is likely to proceed slowly under the willing-buyer, willing-seller programme, although many commercial farms have already been purchased by black Namibians with affirmative action loans.  While diamond exports plummeted by 53% in the first half of 2009 compared with a year earlier, other exports – especially uranium – increased. Although Namibia’s trade deficit went up by 50% to $439m, the current account deficit was reversed and became a surplus of $96m. Namibia’s foreign reserves were $1.7bn at the end of June, only 5% down on the preceding quarter and almost 40% higher than a year earlier, while external debt has remained modest.  

Real GDP contracted by just under 1% in 2009, compared with 2.9% growth the preceding year, but should rebound to around 1.7% in 2010 on the back of a recovery in the diamond market, higher uranium and base metal production and a possible start on developing the Kudu offshore gas field. Namibia is already the world’s fourth-biggest uranium producer and output should treble to 15,000 tonnes U3O8 per year from 2011-12. At least two of five advanced-stage uranium projects – Rossing South, with a current resource estimate of 121,000tn, and Etango with 73,000tn – are slated for production within two to three years.