This country profile was published in November 2008 in our annual 'Africa in 2009' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2010' will be on sale 23 November 2009.

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Caught between stagnation and disaster, Guinea faces another uncertain year. While ailing President Lansana Conté has appeared to edge towards an accommodation with those who have so often challenged his power on the streets of Conakry, he and his allies have shown an instinctive reliance on patronage, backed by force, to preserve the status quo. Battles for influence continue around the ageing president, as factions seek to protect their interests. Any moves towards political liberalisation – including long-delayed legislative elections – are by-products of such manoeuvres, rather than signs of a coherent strategy.


After the repression of demonstrations instigated by the trade unions in early 2007 provoked the risk of a spiralling cycle of violence and an international outcry, the appointment of former diplomat Lansana Kouyaté as Prime Minister opened up the prospect of progress; but when the report of an audit he had commissioned exposed corruption in the trading activities of senior presidential associates, he reached the limits of his tether. On 20 May 2008, Kouyaté was replaced by Ahmed Tidiane Souaré, a presidential loyalist. Mixed signals emerged from Conakry over subsequent months.


Souaré persuaded three opposition parties, the Union pour le Progrès et le Renouveau, the Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG) and the Union pour le Progrès de la Guinée, to each appoint a junior member of his new government. Less compromising opponents Sidya Touré and Alpha Condé refused to join in what they saw as a public relations gesture, but Cellou Diallo’s UFDG helped boost the government’s failing credentials. In August, the powerful secretary general of the presidency, Mamady Sam Soumah, a key architect of Kouyaté’s defeat, was himself forced out, and replaced by Alpha Ibrahima Keira, a son-in-law of the president. Other loyalists were sacked in October.


Conté will not abandon his paternalistic habits even if he allows those around him to push through limited reforms to placate domestic opponents and foreign critics. Although coup plots, real or imagined, have long been a feature of the Conté era, the loyalty of the army has hitherto been maintained through economic privileges – smuggling opportunities for the officers and access to rice, the basic Guinean staple, at prices far below those available to the civilian population. But these strategems may no longer be affordable, both because of high world commodity prices and because the corruption of the presidential coterie has drained state revenue. In May 2008, restive soldiers mutinied until Conté placated them with fresh promises, but the situation may not be tenable in the long term.


Any donor support will come with strings attached: demands for more transparency in state finances and legislative elections that are less obviously rigged than the contest in 2002. Souaré’s inclusion of opposition figures in his team suggests that he hopes to shield the regime from pressure but other players around Conté may not share this view. Some senior figures want to give China access to Guinea’s iron ore and bauxite in return for financial support and this could provide the regime with a major financial cushion.


Mineral development, with the giant Global Alumina project already underway, will remain the main driver for real GDP growth, which is now estimated to have jumped to 4.5% for 2008 (from just 1.8% in 2007) and has been forecast to reach 4.7% for 2009.