Country Profile: TOGO

West Africa

Monday, 23 November 2009 00:00

This country profile was published in November 2009 in our annual 'Africa in 2010' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2011' will be on sale in November 2010.

After a difficult 2008, marked by floods, power cuts and spiking inflation, 2009 has been a much better year, with growth reaching almost 3%. This is largely due to heavy infrastructure outlays and the sharp fall in fuel and food prices. From this base, the country is projecting similar growth for 2010, with the restructuring of previously moribund industries – from phosphates, cotton, construction and banking – slowly seeing results. Re-engagement from the  international donor community has been a major factor in the success of these reforms, following the ‘normalisation’ of the political situation in the country. Consumption levels are expected to rise in 2010 as donor-assisted social spending spreads through the economy. The infrastructure needs of the country will no doubt require a sharp injection of foreign money, and Chinese companies have already rebuilt most of the bridges swept away in the heavy floods.  

Togo Despite opposition protests during the parliamentary elections of 2007, the ruling Rassemblement du Peuple Togolais (RPT) appears to be increasingly engaged in the democratic process, a long-term bonus for the country. But the political health of the country is severely compromised by the south-north rivalry that pits President Faure  Gnassingbé, son of dictator Gnassingbé Eyadéma from the north, against Gilchrist Olympio, son of the first elected president Sylvanus Olympio, who was assassinated in the run up to the accession to power of Eyadéma in 1963. Early 2010 elections will be the test of Togo’s post-Eyadéma transition. With the scene set as from a Shakespearean  drama, the descendents are rallying their power bases in the north and south. Election campaigns are being conducted in a personal, visceral manner, inspired by the fear of what might happen should the other side get into power. This may explain why other opposition parties like the Comité d’Action pour le Renouveau, Convention Démocratique des Peuples Africains and Convergence Patriotique Panafricaine have distanced themselves from Olympio’s crusade, as well as from Faure’s dynastic RPT. The presidential elections in 2010 will be the real test of the maturity of the country’s politics. The emergence of Kofi Yamgnane, a Franco-Togolese politician who has served as a French MP, has stimulated the hopes of those  looking for a more balanced argument over policy rather than personality.  

Instability also comes from intra-family rivalry at the heart of the state. Former defence minister Kpatcha Gnassingbé, brother to Faure, was accused of attempting a coup when the President was due to travel to China on 13 April. Various family members intervened to calm spirits, but Kpatcha remains in detention awaiting trial.  

One thing that must count in favour of the Faure camp is the sustained effort at improving the management of public finances since 2006. Revenues from tax and customs have risen, while expenditure has remained stable. Subsidies for boosting food production, along with a partial passing on of oil revenues to consumers has helped stabilise the primary balance, which turned into surplus for a time in 2007.  

Improvements in agricultural yields and state subsidies for inputs have helped the agricultural sector. But the cotton subsector is now in urgent need of attention, as debts from the cotton parastatal are hobbling the small, state-bank dominated financial sector. Only Ecobank, a regional giant, stands above these perennial farm loan problems. The country will be looking to continue to play on its regional strengths, with the port in Lomé helping clear cargo from the West African hinterland. Privatisations are on the agenda for the phosphates, cotton and banking sectors.