Country Profile: MADAGASCAR

This country profile was published in November 2010 in our annual 'Africa in 2011' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2012' will be on sale in November 2011.

CountryProfile StatsMadagascar

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President Andry Rajoelina’s government faced insurrection during an attempted coup by a faction of the military on 17 November. It was unclear whether the mutiny, led by colonel Charles Andrianasoavina, would succeed. It came during voting on a new referendum, which Rajoelina, a former mayor of Antananarivo and disc jockey, was hoping would confer greater legitimacy on his transitional government. ?

Rajoelina himself came to power in a coup in 2009 on the back of protests which forced then-President Marc Ravalomanana into exile. His party, the Haute Autorité de la Transition (HAT) has fairly broad public backing and Rajoelina seemed set to claim endorsement from a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum. However, at least one of his opponents, former President Albert Zafy, appeared to support the coup attempt against him. ?

International support for a return to constitutional rule will be key. After Rajoelina pulled out of the Maputo-Addis Ababa deal negotiated with the former presidents in 2009, donors did not rush to cut their support. Conscious of the huge risks for the Malagasy economy and the development advances made in recent years, they sought to phase it down gently, continuing to release funds for previously-approved programmes.?

By mid-2010, most of these facilities were already drained. That is when Madagascar began to feel the painful effects of donors’ refusal to approve new credits. The government’s technocrats managed to sustain the basic stability of state finances and to provide core services. But the drying up of aid has delayed the development of new projects and threatens to undermine basic budget stability in the long term.?

The textile industry, which employs more than 100,000 people in Antananarivo, was weakened in January 2010 by the suspension of its privileged access to the US market. Mass layoffs could devastate the living standards of many families and spark a sharp decline in Rajoelina’s support.?

If the HAT can maintain positive momentum in the transition process, and thus convince some donors to hold back from aid cuts, Madagascar may yet reach the planned mid-2011 date for elections envisaged by both the August 2010 inter-party agreement and the almost identical roadmap proposed by the Coordination Nationale des Organisations de la Société Civile, an umbrella group of civil society organisations. These plans envisage legislative elections in March 2011 followed by presidential elections in May or June.

?Rajoelina has pledged not to be a candidate. France, accused by some Anglophone diplomats of supporting the HAT as a means of removing Ravalomanana from the scene, persuaded Rajoelina that his best long-term option was to stand nobly aside in the hope of staging a victorious electoral comeback in four or five years.

?This leaves prospects for the 2011 poll wide open. It is unclear whether Ravalomanana will be able to attempt a comeback. The ousted former president remains a hugely contentious figure. The HAT has used court convictions in absentia to deter him from attempting to return to power.

?Whoever wins will face a massive task. Increased mineral production at Rio Tinto’s ilmenite mine at Taolagnaro and Sherritt’s Ambatovy nickel project will boost the balance of payments. However, the economy remains weak. Poverty is widespread and two years of instability have squeezed state finances and hurt the business sector. The IMF predicts that after a negative growth rate of -2% in 2010, economic growth will rebound in 2011 to 2.8%. The government expects inflation to remain at a level of close to 10% for the next year.