Country Profile: ERITREA

This country profile was published in November 2010 in our annual 'Africa in 2011' issue. The next edition, 'Africa in 2012' will be on sale in November 2011.

Cautiously opening the door

After gaining a reputation for taking as much of a hardline approach to diplomacy as it did with its own citizens, the government of Isaias Afewerki is showing signs of softening its foreign-policy stance. In mid-2010, Eritrea unexpectedly ended its border feud with Djibouti, and Isaias and other government officials undertook a series of initiatives to reach out to the Arab world for new allies. For a long time, the Eritrean government had sought to play up conflicts to achieve its internal and external policy goals. With information tightly controlled inside the country, the changes have prompted surprise and speculation abroad. While some observers see no change in the regime’s siege mentality, others say the government is acting on an internal reality: that, if it is to stay unchallenged in power, it cannot continue to deny food and services to its people.

It is now belatedly making up for having refused international ?assistance and investment.?Things have been tougher since December 2009, when the UN imposed sanctions on Eritrea because of its support for the insurgency in Somalia. Eritreans themselves – though many remain proud of their 1991 independence victory from Ethiopia – continue to flee the country in their tens of thousands, running from Eritrea’s open-ended mandatory national service or widespread food shortages.

The continuation of military service and mobilisations are increasing pressures on the population, and the government is struggling to manage their long-term impact.?The Isaias government, the only one independent Eritrea has ever known, designed a one-party state that does not permit public criticism, rival political agendas or independent media.

It has long since dispensed with the promise of elections and a constitution. Its leaders are former guerrilla fighters who forged their politics in a war for self-determination and are loath to be seen asking for outside help. Eritreans who follow one of its banned religions are locked up in desert jails and tortured, as are Eritrea’s few political activists, many of whom have not been heard from for years.?According to the few aid workers allowed in, even a good harvest cannot make up for a devastating food deficit. While rural Eritreans have been left to starve in years past, aid agencies say the government is slowly letting international aid increase, so long as none of the donors promote it publicly.

In an October report, the International Food Policy Research Institute called hunger rates in Eritrea “extremely alarming”.?The IMF predicts that real GDP growth in 2010 and 2011 will be meagre, at 1.8 and 2.8%. ?In 2010, the government began an unprecedented publicity drive to lure foreign tourists, advertising Eritrea’s pristine coast at Massawa, its rich archeological history as well as the attractions of Asmara, which some call the continent’s most beautiful city. But the economy remains saddled with problems, including the fixed exchange rate for the nakfa and the over-reliance on agriculture which is dependent on irregular rainfall. A large part of the country’s foreign income is provided by Eritreans abroad.

?Another sign of cautious opening will be the first production in Eritrea’s gold rush. Attracted by liberal mining laws, nearly 20 foreign companies are at various stages of exploration. The first to produce will be Canada’s Nevsun Resources, in which the government has a 40% stake, which should yield 1m ounces of gold, 9.4m ounces of silver, 700m-800m pounds of copper and 1bn pounds of zinc. Eritrea has high expectations for the mineral sector, but the government will see no profit on its investment until at least 2015