Tigray tensions

Ethiopia: With Tigray under rebel control, what next for Prime Minister Abiy?

By Patrick Smith, Nicholas Norbrook

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Posted on June 30, 2021 17:18

Protests during G7 summit in Cornwall © Demonstrators hold Tigray’s flags as they gather by the sea at Gyllyngvase beach after a Tigray protest in Falmouth, during the G7 summit in Cornwall, Britain, 12 June 2021. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson
Demonstrators hold Tigray’s flags as they gather by the sea at Gyllyngvase beach after a Tigray protest in Falmouth, during the G7 summit in Cornwall, Britain, 12 June 2021. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have hoped that the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire on Monday 28 June in Tigray would stop the crisis in northern Ethiopia spiralling out of his control. Instead, it raises tough questions about the authority of his government amid growing dissension in the regions.

A week ago, as many Ethiopians were voting in the 21 June national elections, Abiy’s government launched what it called a final offensive against resistance forces in Tigray.

The Tigray conflict started in 2020 when the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a party that was influential under the government of former premier Meles Zenawi, challenged Abiy’s authority and regional elections without Addis’ approval.

The plan was to announce a sweeping election victory for Abiy’s Prosperity Party and declare total victory in the Tigray region. With the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) retaking Mekelle – the regional capital – on 28 June and federal forces retreating, the government in Addis Ababa will have to rethink, fast.

Hard choices

The losses in Tigray, along with international opprobrium that the military campaign has attracted, present the government with some hard choices; and

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