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Egypt/Ethiopia/Sudan: Could the US be the key to unlocking the GERD deadlock?

By Mourad R. Kamel

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Posted on July 22, 2021 15:21

Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, in Khartoum © Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, in Khartoum, Sudan March 6, 2021. Sudan Sovereign Council/Handout via REUTERS
Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, in Khartoum, Sudan March 6, 2021. Sudan Sovereign Council/Handout via REUTERS

In a speech on 15 July to kick-start a national project, “Decent Life”  (حياه كريمة), Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stated that the country’s national security is a “red line” that cannot be crossed. It’s not the first time the former chief of military intelligence has warned against testing the nation’s threshold when it comes to matters of national security and sovereignty. But this warning came ten days after Ethiopia began the second filling of its contentious Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD).  

“I want to make it clear that your concerns about the GERD are legitimate, but we need to address this topic calmly… It is not because we practice wise politics [or] that we [prioritise] peace, that we allow in any way or form, the jeopardy of our national interests,” said the Egyptian president in his address, before adding that the state can use varied options to protect itself.

The GERD, located in Guba – 60km from Sudan and 750km from Addis Ababa – has the potential to reduce Egypt’s water shares by up to 30%, leading to a similar decrease in electricity production by the Aswan dam. Both Egypt and Sudan rely almost entirely on the Nile for water supplies to over 140 million people. Any problems in accessing water spells trouble for citizens of both countries.

One year ago, during Ethiopia’s first filling of reservoirs, Sudan claimed that its water levels dropped, thereby prompting

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