GROWTH PARADOX

Uganda: Why is the middle class shrinking despite its economic growth?

By Musinguzi Blanshe

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Posted on September 27, 2021 15:25

Uganda Gays © A Ugandan businesswoman counts Ugandan Shilling banknotes in Kampala, Uganda Thursday, Feb. 27, 2014. (AP Photo/Stephen Wandera)
A Ugandan businesswoman counts Ugandan Shilling banknotes in Kampala, Uganda Thursday, Feb. 27, 2014. (AP Photo/Stephen Wandera)

Reports confirming South Africa’s retail shopping stores Shoprite and the Massmart-owned Game would be exiting the Ugandan market have triggered a debate as to whether the country’s economy squeezed them out or they simply failed to understand their market. We take a closer look at Uganda’s economy to better understand the situation.

Those who argue that the two retailers failed to understand the economy cite locally-owned retail businesses, which are thriving and growing, even though they aren’t as big as Shoprite and don’t maintain as high a standard. They also argue that these big stores were selling products – such as apples imported from South Africa and expensive food items – that Ugandans could easily purchase on the roadside or from small and medium retail shops in Kampala at half the price.

Others argue that the exits are an indicator of how the economy is growing, but without creating a larger middle-income class that can sustain these stores. Given that it’s difficult to gather accurate data on economic performance across Africa, Timothy Kalyegira, a retired journalist and independent researcher, says such companies that are listed on the London or Johannesburg Stock Exchange, which operate under strict

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