spillover effect

Ethiopia – Tigray: Fears grow of ‘descent into warlordism’ if TPLF takes Addis

By Fred Harter

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Posted on November 18, 2021 11:03

Ethiopia Tigray Crisis
A person holds a national flag as people gather at a rally organized by local authorities to show support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), at Meskel square in downtown Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021. (AP Photo)

As rebels from Tigray continue to push south towards Addis Ababa, there are fears that Ethiopia’s widening civil war could spill across borders and engulf neighbouring countries.

On Friday 12 November, ahead of his first trip to Africa, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned that Ethiopia is at risk of “implosion” if a peace deal is not reached, with potentially disastrous results “for the Ethiopian people and also for countries in the region”.

Millions have already been internally displaced by the conflict in the Tigray, Amhara and Afar states, and regional leaders are plagued by the prospect of new waves of refugees crossing international borders if the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its ally, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), try to take the capital.


Such a move could trigger bloody fighting on a far greater scale than seen so far in the year-long conflict. Some 200,000 residents of the capital have joined militias to defend their neighbourhoods, and Amhara leaders, who have portrayed the war as a battle for survival, may opt

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