Equity Strategy

BHP, Anglo American, Rio Tinto among Russia-Ukraine equity winners: Barclays

By David Whitehouse

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Posted on February 23, 2022 10:51

Anglo American is among mining stocks likely to benefit from higher oil.
Anglo American is among mining stocks likely to benefit from higher oil. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

Oil and mining multinationals operating in Africa are among the potential equity market winners from uncertainty over Russia’s intentions in Ukraine. BHP, Anglo American, Rio Tinto should see their position bolstered, argues Barclays.

Russia is a major supplier of oil to the European Union, and crude prices have been around their highest for seven years. In the absence of a quick de-escalation of tensions, prices will stay high for the time being, Barclays says in research on Feb 16. That is likely to benefit suppliers of oil from alternative sources such as Africa.

Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies are among obvious winners, Barclays says. Miners such as BHP, Anglo American and Rio Tinto also tend to perform better when oil rises, while Barry Callebaut and Nestlé are among consumer stocks operating in Africa which stand to lose.

Barclays prefers energy shares as protection against geopolitical risk, and is also overweight in industrials. The bank provides a list of share performance correlations with the oil price. Companies which draw part of their resources from Africa have some of the highest correlations.

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