Russia is a major supplier of oil to the European Union, and crude prices have been around their highest for seven years. In the absence of a quick de-escalation of tensions, prices will stay high for the time being, Barclays says in research on Feb 16. That is likely to benefit suppliers of oil from alternative sources such as Africa.
Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies are among obvious winners, Barclays says. Miners such as BHP, Anglo American and Rio Tinto also tend to perform better when oil rises, while Barry Callebaut and Nestlé are among consumer stocks operating in Africa which stand to lose.
Barclays prefers energy shares as protection against geopolitical risk, and is also overweight in industrials. The bank provides a list of share performance correlations with the oil price. Companies which draw part of their resources from Africa have some of the highest correlations.
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