War in Ukraine: World Bank says there will be inflation until 2024

In its latest ‘Commodity Market Outlook’ report, which was published on 26 April, the World Bank is not very optimistic. According to the Bretton Woods institution, “the war in Ukraine, by causing a major shock to these markets, has altered global trade, production and consumption patterns such that prices will remain at historically high levels until the end of 2024”. This inflationary shock will last on both the energy and food fronts, with peaks not seen since the 1973 oil crisis, the Bank says.

“As was the case then, the shock is compounded by renewed restrictions on trade in food, fuel and fertiliser,” says Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s vice president for equitable growth, finance and institutions. This has “begun to raise the spectre of stagflation”, he adds. As such, Gill has called on “policymakers to seize every opportunity to encourage economic growth at home and to avoid