Ethiopia: Four scenarios for the Tigray conflict; from peace to ‘Syria on steroids’

By Tom Gardner
Posted on Wednesday, 14 September 2022 17:44

A choir member sings during the Ethiopian New Year's Eve celebration in Addis Ababa.
A choir member sings during the Ethiopian New Year's Eve celebration marking the beginning of the year 2015 on the Ethiopian calendar, at the Biftu Bole Lutheran Church in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, September 11, 2022. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri

While peace may be one possibility - and the defeat of the Tigray rebels another - the restart of hostilities in Ethiopia means a range of outcomes have opened up.

We trace out four of the most likely scenarios, from the likelihood of fighting spilling into Eritrea, to a grinding continuation of the conflict for several years.

Scenario 1 – Peace – Medium probability