Kenya may need pre-emptive debt restructuring to avoid default, economists say

A $2bn eurobond maturity in 2024 poses a significant risk both for Kenyan government finances and the external financing requirements, according to  research from Irmgard Erasmus, senior financial economist at Oxford Economics in Cape Town.

The country’s “constrained access” to capital markets, and inability to diversify to alternative financing sources, may challenge successful eurobond rollover, with a visible trade deficit forecast at 11% of GDP from 2022 to 2024 further clouding the outlook, Erasmus writes. “Kenya is likely to face challenges with the 2024 maturity.”