Ethiopia: Three scenarios following peace deal with Tigray

By The Africa Report

Posted on Wednesday, 23 November 2022 11:21
Chief of staff of the Ethiopian Armed Forces and Field Marshal Berhanu Jula (L) shakes hands with Commander-in-chief of the Tigray rebel forces General Tadesse Worede (R) as, former Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo (CL) and former Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta (CR) applaud during the signing ceremony of the declaration of the senior commanders meeting on the implementation of the Ethiopia permanent cessation of hostilities agreement between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Nairobi on November 12, 2022. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP)

A peace deal signed in November has given Ethiopia’s government a victory in its two-year struggle against the Tigray region. The Africa Report looks at three possible scenarios following the deadly conflict, which some estimates say has killed up to 1.2 million civilians and combatants.

Under the terms of the agreement – struck after lengthy negotiations in South Africa – Tigray’s fighting force will demobilise while the federal military will take control of the region’s roads, airports, and capital.