‘harmonising differences’

Africa: IMF projects significant AfCFTA potential. Can it be achieved?

By Herald Onyango

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Posted on May 11, 2023 11:57

 © African leaders pose for a group photograph as they meet to sign a free trade deal that would create a liberalised market for goods and services across the continent, in Kigali, Rwanda March 21, 2018. REUTERS
African leaders pose for a group photograph as they meet to sign a free trade deal that would create a liberalised market for goods and services across the continent, in Kigali, Rwanda March 21, 2018. REUTERS

Intra-African trade could see a 53% spike through domestic reforms and implementation of the sluggish African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the latest research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates, painting the continent’s trade woes as self-inflicted and tax-driven. Officials highlight other serious challenges that need to be tackled in order for the continent to boost its trade.

The IMF paper, which seeks to unveil Africa’s potential in the global space, notes that the fragmented trade integration on the continent is largely linked to the existing tariff and non-tariff barriers, the centrepiece of the AfCFTA deal.

If fast-tracked, there is even a bigger boost of unlocking a 15% uptick in trade flow between Africa and the rest of the world, raising real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the median country by more than 10%.

This potential will only be possible if there is a slash in tariffs on intra-African trade by a whopping 90% and non-tariff measures (NTMs) by half – a move that will demand massive goodwill, especially at a time when there is growing distrust with governments, cut-throat competition, and pressure to raise more revenue through taxes.

“If Africa decides to follow Asians, for example, and bring trade barriers down from 6% down to 1%,

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