Journalists and lawyers that had arrived early to attend the proceedings of the election petition tribunal – where Tinubu’s victory is being challenged – watched in shock as a factional chairman of the Labour Party, Lamidi Apapa; and the director-general of Peter Obi’s campaign, Akin Osuntokun, engaged in a confrontation over who would sit at the litigants’ gallery in the courtroom.
Apapa, who emerged as factional chairman after a controversial court ruling, is believed to be Tinubu’s mole in the party. After the court hearing, angry Obi supporters mobbed him, describing him as a traitor. He was forced to exit the court premises hurriedly as his cap fell off.
While Apapa continues to claim that he is not Tinubu’s mole, the utterances from his faction suggest otherwise. In a recent statement, the faction called on Obi to withdraw his suit against Tinubu.
“We have consistently maintained that Obi is not serious… He only came to mess up the entire [electoral] process and to deceive Nigerians that he has something to offer to them,” said the factional Labour Party in a statement.
“Labour Party is thereby calling on him to drop his selfish ambition and stop messing up the party if he has nothing serious to present to the tribunal,” it added.
PDP’s woes
While the Labour Party is battling its internal conflict, the PDP is not any better. The party’s chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, has been suspended by a court following a case instituted against him by a faction of the party loyal to former Governor Nyesom Wike’s G5.
Wike, who led a rebellion against the PDP and its Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, openly supported Tinubu in the last election. Since Tinubu’s victory, he has met the President thrice and also invited him to Rivers State to inaugurate some projects.
The former Rivers State governor has also been supporting Tinubu’s decisions and policies, openly taking positions contrary to those of his party. He recently visited Tinubu alongside Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and convicted ex-Governor James Ibori who until recently was considered as the godfather of Delta State politics.
“We came to give him [Tinubu] support. We are supporting all the decisions he is taking. It shows he is prepared for the job and there’s nothing bad about that,” he told journalists after a recent visit to Tinubu at the Presidential Villa.
Wike, Governor Makinde and a host of other elements in the PDP have openly identified themselves as fans of Tinubu and are believed to be planning to defect to the APC soon.
Besides, the crisis in the PDP has led to a wave of defections in recent times. At least eight serving PDP federal lawmakers including three senators have dumped the party and some have already joined the APC.
“I write to formally inform you and the entire Senate that I am resigning my membership of PDP effective immediately. This difficult decision arose out of the negative political energy emanating at the moment from the irreconcilable differences and squabbles within the PDP,” stated Senator Matthew Urhoghide.
Upcoming elections
Analysts told The Africa Report that this crisis within the two main opposition parties could work in favour of the APC, especially in the governorship elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo which come up in November and could also affect the Ondo and Edo governorship elections in late 2024 if no drastic action is taken.
In the southeast state of Imo where the Labour Party has a large support base due to Obi’s influence, the party is embroiled in a deep crisis that has led to the emergence of two governorship candidates and a divided house ahead of the November poll.
In the end, the courts would have to determine who is the authentic candidate. However, in the interim, the internal frictions could easily work in favour of the APC and its candidate, Governor Hope Uzodinma.
Kwankwaso’s compromise
Apart from the crisis in the two main opposition parties, a third force party, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) led by Rabiu Kwankwaso is now about to get in bed with Tinubu.
Although the NNPP lacks a national base, Kwankwaso enjoys a cult following in Kano State, the country’s largest vote bank. In the last poll, Kwankwaso secured nearly one million votes in Kano, the highest that any candidate secured in a single state.
Last month, Kwankwaso held a four-hour meeting with Tinubu in Paris. Although the details of the meeting were never officially revealed, sources from both Tinubu and Kwankwaso’s camp tell The Africa Report that Tinubu is open to giving Kwankwaso a prominent role in his government in exchange for his support in Kano.
“Kano has the largest number of actual voters in the country and only a politically naïve President would allow such a state to remain in the hands of the opposition. Tinubu wants to form a strategic partnership with Kwankwaso so that when he wants to run for re-election in 2027, his ride would be smooth,” an associate of the President tells The Africa Report.
Already, Kwankwaso’s men have agreed to support Tinubu’s candidates in the upcoming National Assembly internal elections while Kwankwaso himself refused to challenge Tinubu’s victory in court. This was despite the fact that his party initially rejected the election results when the electoral body announced Tinubu as the winner.
Strategist
Sources within Tinubu’s camp tell The Africa Report that Tinubu would bring his experience as a political strategist to his Presidency and this will work against the opposition all through his tenure.
Tinubu was the leader of the main opposition for about 10 years. He was also the leader of the ruling party before becoming President. His associates told The Africa Report that he will be the most political President Nigeria has ever had and will pull many key opposition figures to his side with juicy offers.
In a chat with The Africa Report, Peter Obi’s campaign manager, Osuntokun, said it was likely that the presidency was sponsoring the crisis in the Labour Party.
Osuntokun, however, argues that Obi’s popularity transcends party lines and thus such gimmicks would not be able to dampen his morale.
In Lagos where Tinubu held sway as political godfather for 23 years, most influential opposition politicians defected to Tinubu’s party due to his patronage system.
Traitors within the system were dealt with while those who were loyal were rewarded. This helped Tinubu to maintain a vice grip on the state. Tinubu’s ownership of media houses and his close ties to civil society groups and some unions coupled with his generosity have contributed to his hold on power over the years.
With Tinubu now the most powerful man in the country, he will be expected to use this to his advantage as far as politics goes.
“The current opposition is not capable of tackling Tinubu’s government. Their constant fighting and division are what even let Tinubu win the Presidential election in the first place,” public affairs commentator, Deji Adeyanju, tells The Africa Report.
“Tinubu is not Buhari. He is more tactical and is a master of the divide and rule strategy,” he says, adding that opposition politics requires huge funding which the current crop of politicians may not have the heart for.
But Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe, a former opposition leader turned Tinubu campaigner, tells The Africa Report that the success of the opposition would depend on Tinubu’s performance in office.
“If the government is doing well, the opposition will not be strong. So, it all depends on Tinubu’s performance,” says the former minister.
“If Tinubu is able to improve the education and health sectors and improve the economy, the opposition would even support him,” he adds.
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