Russia-Ukraine war: South Africa-led peace mission nipped in the bud?

The initiative has failed to achieve progress towards peace, with the warring parties showing no intention to back down. Does President Cyril Ramaphosa have the ability to make a difference?

In Warsaw, airport authorities detained South Africa’s security plane upon its arrival last week and barred those onboard and their cargo from disembarking. They accused the pilot of flying to the Polish capital without authorisation instead of landing in Rzeszów, where overland trains to Kyiv were boarded. 

The weapons on the South African plane were also deemed “dangerous” goods with no import clearance, the Polish foreign ministry said on Friday. South Africa, on the other hand, has accused Polish authorities of being “racist”, saying their actions put Ramaphosa’s life in danger. 

“It is impossible from [a] distance to ascertain exactly what happened in Warsaw. It may be that South Africa had not secured proper protocol clearance for the security team,” says Stephen Chan, Africa diplomacy expert and professor at University of London. 

“It would be unlike the Poles not to be ready if clearance had been secured. It [all] adds to my criticisms of the South African foreign affairs minister” over “lacklustre organisation.”

President Ramaphosa led the delegation, which included his Zambian, Senegal, and Comorian counterparts as well as representatives from Uganda, Egypt, Congo Republic, and Comoros. “He and the other African leaders have no agreed plan. All they can do is offer good offices and good will,” says Chan. 

The African leaders met on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose rhetoric has not changed in response to their suggestions, once again blaming Ukraine and its western allies for starting the war. The African leaders’ plan is based on the internationally recognised borders, which Russia does not acknowledge.

“Essentially this trip has no substantive merit in terms of ending the war. The Chinese and Vatican plans are what Africa should endorse – not crowd the field,” says France Cronje, a former chief executive of the South Africa Institute of Race Relations.

Grain shipments

The Africa peace mission may have an ulterior economic motive: seeking Putin’s assurance that Africa-bound grain shipments will be unimpeded, Chan says.

The war saw a number of African countries face fertiliser shortages and high grain prices. African nations are also concerned over food security as an agreement that enables Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea seems to be hanging by a thread. 

But Putin argued that Ukrainian grain shipments over the past year were mostly sent to developed nations and not Africa, holding the West responsible for soaring food prices. Ukraine claims Russia’s blockade of grain-exporting ports and bombing of farmland is throttling critical food production and exports. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday said in a meeting with the African delegation in Kyiv that Russian forces must withdraw from occupied territories in order to edge closer to peace, a step that Moscow has categorically refused. Russia stresses that a treaty ought to be agreed amid the annexation of five Ukrainian provinces.

Doubts over South Africa’s neutrality

Doubts are mounting over whether South Africa can act as an honest peace broker, even though it maintains neutrality on the conflict.

Pretoria abstained from a UN vote condemning the Ukraine war, hosted Russia for naval exercises on the anniversary of the invasion, and according US claims loaded weapons on Lady R, a Russian vessel that docked in South Africa.

In retaliation for South Africa’s close ties to Russia, the US has threatened Pretoria with loss of its lucrative duty-free access to the world’s largest consumer market. Meanwhile, South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) has expressed concern that humanitarian aid is being used to pressure African countries into expressing support for Ukraine. 

South Africa’s actions that have served Russia’s interests are hardly neutral, argued former executive director of Human Rights Watch Kenneth Roth in May. “After Africa’s deadly colonial history, does South Africa really want to help the Kremlin impose colonial rule on Ukraine?” 

In all cases, unless Ukraine achieves a sufficient victory in the battlefield, Cronje says, any negotiations can hardly force Russia to back down.