pandora's box

Ethiopia/Egypt: GERD fight sucks in global actors

in depth

This article is part of the dossier:

GERD: The dam of discord

By Tamim Heikal

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Posted on May 10, 2021 07:24

The failure of the latest round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could have dramatic repercussions for the region and the world, potentially setting off a new migrant crisis, a military intervention and chaos in shipping.

This is the final report of a 5-part series.

The recent incident involving the Ever Given, the container ship that was lodged in the Suez Canal for six days, throwing world trade into a temporary crisis, served to remind the international community of the vital importance of the canal and stability in Egypt and the wider region.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made an in-person visit to the canal to watch the ship being dislodged and seized the opportunity to bring up the lingering tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

He didn’t mince words: “No one can take a drop of Egypt’s water and if it happens there will be inconceivable instability in the region.”

Greater drought vulnerability and a new migrant crisis

As the seemingly never-ending crisis enters its final phase, just two scenarios remain on the table.

  • The first involves Ethiopia taking the unilateral

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