in Depth

Political Capital

Every month Political Capital tracks which leaders’ political stock is rising, who is on the slide, and what this means for democracy and development. Focusing on the trends behind the headlines, Professor Nic Cheeseman (@fromagehomme) highlights the political power plays and events that will shape the future of Africa.

Article 1/31

POLITICAL CAPITAL

Article 1/31

The rise of Africa’s new ‘old men’ When Presidents Yahya Jammeh of Gambia, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan were brought down within a few years of each other, Afri...

Article 2/31

political capital

Article 2/31

The remarkable power of African elections Africa will see seven major elections over the next six months, from Guinea on Sunday through to Uganda in February next year. Almost none will result...

Article 3/31

political capital

Article 3/31

How Western companies undermine African democracy As the recent election campaign in Tanzania reached a climax, opposition supporters began to notice something strange.

Opposition supporters celebrate after a court annulled the May 2019 presidential vote that declared Peter Mutharika a winner © Opposition supporters celebrate after a court annulled the May 2019 presidential vote that declared Peter Mutharika a winner, in Lilongwe, Malawi, 4 February 2020. REUTERS/Eldson Chagara

Article 4/31

Change to believe in

Article 4/31

Africa: ‘Repression & resistance are two key trends heading into 2021’ The last twelve months have been as intense and breathless as any I can remember, both in Africa and around the world.

Article 5/31

election season is open, let the games begin

Article 5/31

Africa’s growing criminalization of the opposition As I sat down to write this month’s column opposition leader Bobi Wine was casting his ballot in the Ugandan presidential election.

Article 6/31

hide-and-go-seek

Article 6/31

The great Magufuli mystery: What a missing president tells us about politics in Tanzania It seems almost impossible in this age of social media and ubiquitous camera phones, but no one seems to know where – or how – Tanzanian President Joh...

Tanzania Magufuli © Military officers carry the coffin of former President John Magufuli, draped with the national flag, during a funeral service in his home town of Chato, Tanzania, Friday 26 March 2021. (AP Photo)

Article 7/31

forces from beyond

Article 7/31

Politics of death: The way we mourn leaders reveals what unites and divides us Two countries have been mourning the deaths of very different leaders recently.

Kenya’s deputy chief justice Philomena Mwilu presides during a ruling laying out the reasons for annulling presidential election in Kenya’s Supreme Court in Nairobi © Kenya’s deputy chief justice Philomena Mwilu (L) presides during a ruling laying out the reasons for annulling presidential election in Kenya’s Supreme Court in Nairobi, Kenya 20 September 2017. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

Article 8/31

Robed defenders

Article 8/31

Can the courts protect democracy in Africa? Judges have hit the headlines this month for upholding the rule of law in the most difficult circumstances. Against a backdrop of growing concern abou...

Ghana Obit Rawlings © In this Wednesday 24 Feb. 1999 file photo, Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings, right, gestures with President Clinton looking over his shoulder during a news conference at the White House in Washington. Ghana’s former president Jerry Rawlings, who staged two coups and later led the West African country’s transition to a stable democracy, has died aged 73, according to the state’s Radio Ghana and the president (AP Photo/Doug Mills, File)/

Article 9/31

smaller is beautiful

Article 9/31

Smaller African states do not necessarily make better democracies After publishing ‘Democracy in Africa’ back in 2015, I spent the next few years answering all kinds of questions about the prospects for democratic co...

Marcus Rashford memorial salvage, Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK – 23 Jul 2021 © Mandatory Credit: Photo by Joel Goodman/LNP/Shutterstock

Article 10/31

anti-racism

Article 10/31

We cannot defeat racism without decolonisation It has been a depressing month to be English. The defeat to Italy in the final of the UEFA European Championship was the latest in a string of famous ...

Colonel Sadiba Koulibaly (L) and Colonel Mamady Doumbouya (R), coup leaders in Guinea. (©JA Montage: John Wessels/AFP/All rights reserved)

Article 11/31

open season

Article 11/31

Lessons from Africa: Is there such a thing as a ‘good coup’? Is there such a thing as a good coup?

Zambia Elections © Business quickly returned to normal in Zambia Tuesday 17 August 2021, a day after veteran opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema was declared president-elect and the incumbent president Edgar Lungu conceded his election defeat.(AP Photo/Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi)

Article 12/31

opposition power

Article 12/31

Zambia: Why five is the magic number when it comes to opposition election victories The victory of opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema in the Zambian presidential election was as dramatic as it was comprehensive.

West African leaders meet to decide on Guinea after the coup in Accra

Article 13/31

money problems

Article 13/31

Why we should be more understanding of African political leaders The release of the Pandora Papers on 3 October embarrassed high profile figures around the world, exposing the offshore accounts of 35 world leaders. ...

Article 14/31

Bad Odds

Article 14/31

Chad, Guinea, Mali, Sudan… Can a coup be a springboard for democracy? The recent spate of coups in Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan has sparked a flurry of media attention and concern.

Protest against prospect of military rule in Khartoum

Article 15/31

push back

Article 15/31

Africa in 2021: The end of democracy? The headlines suggest it has been a worrying year for politics in sub-Saharan Africa. But from #EndSARS to the election victory of Hakainde Hichilema ...

Belgium EU Africa Summit © President of Rwanda Paul Kagame, left, is welcomed by European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during an EU Africa summit at the European Council building in Brussels, Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022. (Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)/

Article 16/31

authoritarian or democratic?

Article 16/31

What would an authoritarian Africa look like? Yesterday a journalist asked me whether it was possible for an African leader to be a good democrat and an effective leader at the same time. It wasn’...

South Africa’s President Ramaphosa meets Kenya’s President Kenyatta during state visit in Pretoria

Article 17/31

Tough at the top

Article 17/31

Africa in 2022: The danger of hegemonic instability The end of December is often a time for reflection – in 2021 as much as any year. After reading the sad news of Archbishop Desmond Tutu’s passing, a S...

Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga endorsed as the presidential candidate for Azimio la Umoja © Kenya’s Opposition leader Raila Odinga addresses the Azimio la Umoja (Declaration of Unity) coalition conference which endorsed him as the presidential candidate for this year’s general elections at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), Nairobi, Kenya, March 12, 2022. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi

Article 18/31

ideologies matter

Article 18/31

Africa: Why ideas and ideologies matter for politics Political ideas and ideologies shape how leaders behave and are central to efforts to legitimise the exercise of power. From Donald Trump’s exclusiona...

© Russia’s President Vladimir Putin makes a sign of the cross during an Easter service at the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour. Sergei Fadeichev

Article 19/31

offensive ideas

Article 19/31

How (not) to persuade Africa to support Ukraine and denounce Russia The reluctance of some African leaders to condemn Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine has been the subject of a large number of column inches o...

© Protesters march during a ‘Kill the Bill’ demonstration, against plans for increased police powers during protests, in London, Britain, January 15, 2022. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

Article 20/31

GLOBAL FIGHT

Article 20/31

Before criticising democracy abroad, Britain should take a look at itself The UK is quick to offer advice and criticism to African countries struggling with democracy. But a new slew of anti-democratic bills from the ‘mother...

© Federal Police officers carry a coffin containing human remains after a suspect confessed to killing British journalist Dom Phillips and Brazilian indigenous expert Bruno Pereira and led police to the location of remains, at the headquarters of the Federal Police, in Brasilia, Brazil, June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino

Article 21/31

Power of the pen

Article 21/31

We need journalists now more than ever – so why don’t we do more to protect them? When it comes to saving democracy and fighting for freedom, no one has a more important role to play than journalists.

© People protest at Lekki Toll plaza in Lagos, Nigeria, Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2021. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba)

Article 22/31

conceptual stretching

Article 22/31

Why Africa’s youth is not saving democracy Year after year, the quality of democracy has deteriorated in African countries. The continent’s ‘presidents for life’ show no signs of making way for...

© Kenya’s Supreme Court judges William Ouko listens as hearings commence on the petitions challenging the result of the recent presidential election, at the Supreme Court in Nairobi, Kenya Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)/

Article 23/31

legal battle

Article 23/31

Kenya 2022: Lies, damn lies, and statistics The outcome of the Kenyan presidential election now lies in the hands of the Supreme Court. William Ruto may be the president elect on the basis that ...

Zambia’s wealthy president, Hakainde Hichilema. (Facebook, all rights reserved)

Article 24/31

election defeat

Article 24/31

The rise of the opposition in Africa: Which governments are likely to fall next? Governments in Africa are in trouble. Economic decline, more strategic opposition parties and increasingly sophisticated electorates have left ruling ...

© Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga attends the memorial service of late former Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, at the Nyayo Stadium, the venue of the national memorial service, in Nairobi, Kenya, April 29, 2022. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi

Article 25/31

Heels of denial

Article 25/31

Losing an election: The five stages of political grief Losing an election can be traumatic. For candidates who have invested their hopes and dreams in winning office, it can be especially hard to take. Def...

Matt Hancock, Conservative MP, reacts outside the Conservative Campaign Headquarters, in London © Matt Hancock, Conservative MP, reacts outside the Conservative Campaign Headquarters, in London, Britain October 24, 2022. He has since been ousted from the party. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

Article 26/31

Crocodile tears

Article 26/31

The failure of leadership in Britain: an update The chaotic rollercoaster that is British politics took a new turn recently when it was announced that Conservative MP Matt Hancock will appear on the...

© Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari delivers a speech during the Paris Peace Forum, in Paris, Thursday, Nov. 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

Article 27/31

future of politics

Article 27/31

Political year ahead in Africa: Which governments will lose power in 2023? The dust is just beginning to settle on President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo’s farcical election victory in Equatorial Guinea. Not satisfied with r...

© Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa in March 17 2020 ( AFP / Jekesai NJIKIZANA)

Article 28/31

same script

Article 28/31

When Zimbabwe stops pretending to be a democracy On Saturday 14 January, Harare based lawyer Kudzai Kadzere was beaten by members of the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP), leaving him with a fractured h...

© A man cast his vote during the Nigeria Presidential election at a polling station at the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja on February 25, 2023. (Photo by Olukayode Jaiyeola / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Article 29/31

aftermath

Article 29/31

Was the Nigerian election rigged? Even before the Nigerian presidential election results were released, the process had been denounced as flawed by some political leaders. After the In...

A collective of South African regional civil society organisations protest against Uganda’s anti-LGBT bill in Cape Town

Article 30/31

bait and switch

Article 30/31

Exporting Prejudice: How the West promotes homophobia in Africa Africa is undergoing a swell of attacks on gay and non-binary people, often instigated by religious and political leaders. Some of these figures are p...

© Journalist Ralikonelo “Leqhashasha” Joki was gunned down on 15 May (photo: facebook)

Article 31/31

cover up

Article 31/31

Africa: The terrible power of political assassinations On Monday 15 May, the people of Lesotho woke to the news that one of the country’s most prominent journalists had been gunned down the night before. R...

The In Depth Collection