In depth

Political Capital

Every month Political Capital tracks which leaders' political stock is rising, who is on the slide, and what this means for democracy and development. Focusing on the trends behind the headlines, Professor Nic Cheeseman (@fromagehomme) highlights the political power plays and events that will shape the future of Africa.

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POLITICAL CAPITAL

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The rise of Africa’s new ‘old men’

When Presidents Yahya Jammeh of Gambia, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan were brought down within a few years of each other, Africa appeared to be getting rid of the old men that had dominated the political scene for decades.

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political capital

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The remarkable power of African elections

Africa will see seven major elections over the next six months, from Guinea on Sunday through to Uganda in February next year. Almost none will result in victories for the opposition.

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political capital

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How Western companies undermine African democracy

As the recent election campaign in Tanzania reached a climax, opposition supporters began to notice something strange.

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Change to believe in

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Africa: ‘Repression & resistance are two key trends heading into 2021’

The last twelve months have been as intense and breathless as any I can remember, both in Africa and around the world.

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election season is open, let the games begin

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Africa’s growing criminalization of the opposition

As I sat down to write this month’s column opposition leader Bobi Wine was casting his ballot in the Ugandan presidential election.

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hide-and-go-seek

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The great Magufuli mystery: What a missing president tells us about politics in Tanzania

It seems almost impossible in this age of social media and ubiquitous camera phones, but no one seems to know where – or how – Tanzanian President John Magufuli is.

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forces from beyond

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Politics of death: The way we mourn leaders reveals what unites and divides us

Two countries have been mourning the deaths of very different leaders recently.

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Robed defenders

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Can the courts protect democracy in Africa?

Judges have hit the headlines this month for upholding the rule of law in the most difficult circumstances. Against a backdrop of growing concern about democratic backsliding during the coronavirus pandemic, the willingness of the judiciary to protect the constitution in the face of intense political pressure is a source of hope and inspiration.

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smaller is beautiful

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Smaller African states do not necessarily make better democracies

After publishing 'Democracy in Africa' back in 2015, I spent the next few years answering all kinds of questions about the prospects for democratic consolidation on the continent.

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anti-racism

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We cannot defeat racism without decolonisation

It has been a depressing month to be English. The defeat to Italy in the final of the UEFA European Championship was the latest in a string of famous losses.

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open season

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Lessons from Africa: Is there such a thing as a ‘good coup’?

Is there such a thing as a good coup?

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opposition power

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Zambia: Why five is the magic number when it comes to opposition election victories

The victory of opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema in the Zambian presidential election was as dramatic as it was comprehensive.

West African leaders meet to decide on Guinea after the coup in Accra

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money problems

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Why we should be more understanding of African political leaders

The release of the Pandora Papers on 3 October embarrassed high profile figures around the world, exposing the offshore accounts of 35 world leaders. According to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, it was their most expansive exposé of the secret financial arrangements of the rich and famous to date.

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Bad Odds

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Chad, Guinea, Mali, Sudan… Can a coup be a springboard for democracy?

The recent spate of coups in Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan has sparked a flurry of media attention and concern.

Protest against prospect of military rule in Khartoum

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push back

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Africa in 2021: The end of democracy?

The headlines suggest it has been a worrying year for politics in sub-Saharan Africa. But from #EndSARS to the election victory of Hakainde Hichilema in Zambia, Africans are pushing more democracy - not less - argues Nic Cheeseman.

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authoritarian or democratic?

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What would an authoritarian Africa look like?

Yesterday a journalist asked me whether it was possible for an African leader to be a good democrat and an effective leader at the same time. It wasn’t the first time, and won’t be the last.

South Africa's President Ramaphosa meets Kenya's President Kenyatta during state visit in Pretoria

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Tough at the top

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Africa in 2022: The danger of hegemonic instability

The end of December is often a time for reflection – in 2021 as much as any year. After reading the sad news of Archbishop Desmond Tutu’s passing, a South African friend sent me a letter that looked back on a tumultuous year.

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ideologies matter

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Africa: Why ideas and ideologies matter for politics

Political ideas and ideologies shape how leaders behave and are central to efforts to legitimise the exercise of power. From Donald Trump’s exclusionary nationalism to Vladimir Putin’s warped understanding of Ukrainian history, it is clear that beliefs shape policies and actions, often with dramatic consequences.

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offensive ideas

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How (not) to persuade Africa to support Ukraine and denounce Russia

The reluctance of some African leaders to condemn Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine has been the subject of a large number of column inches over the last month.

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GLOBAL FIGHT

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Before criticising democracy abroad, Britain should take a look at itself

The UK is quick to offer advice and criticism to African countries struggling with democracy. But a new slew of anti-democratic bills from the 'mother of parliaments' in the UK suggests that critics should search closer to home.

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Power of the pen

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We need journalists now more than ever – so why don’t we do more to protect them?

When it comes to saving democracy and fighting for freedom, no one has a more important role to play than journalists.

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conceptual stretching

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Why Africa’s youth is not saving democracy

Year after year, the quality of democracy has deteriorated in African countries. The continent’s 'presidents for life' show no signs of making way for the younger generation. This raises fundamental questions, such as: Why is Africa getting more authoritarian as it is getting younger?

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legal battle

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Kenya 2022: Lies, damn lies, and statistics

The outcome of the Kenyan presidential election now lies in the hands of the Supreme Court. William Ruto may be the president elect on the basis that he secured 50.49% in the first round of voting, but his hold on power is tenuous.

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election defeat

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The rise of the opposition in Africa: Which governments are likely to fall next?

Governments in Africa are in trouble. Economic decline, more strategic opposition parties and increasingly sophisticated electorates have left ruling parties increasingly susceptible to election defeat.

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Heels of denial

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Losing an election: The five stages of political grief

Losing an election can be traumatic. For candidates who have invested their hopes and dreams in winning office, it can be especially hard to take. Defeat at the ballot box is personally embarrassing, of course. But the sense of loss that some candidates feel is much deeper and more profound than that. It is the feeling that their whole vision of themselves and their future has been cruelly cut short, leaving them bereft and lacking purpose.

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Crocodile tears

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The failure of leadership in Britain: an update

The chaotic rollercoaster that is British politics took a new turn recently when it was announced that Conservative MP Matt Hancock will appear on the popular British reality television show 'I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out of Here'.

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future of politics

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Political year ahead in Africa: Which governments will lose power in 2023?

The dust is just beginning to settle on President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo’s farcical election victory in Equatorial Guinea. Not satisfied with ruling the country since 1979, he engineered one of the most one-sided elections the world has ever seen. This included giving himself 97% of the vote in the presidential election and preventing the opposition from winning a single legislative seat. Equatorial Guinea is now a one-party state in all, but name.

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same script

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When Zimbabwe stops pretending to be a democracy

On Saturday 14 January, Harare based lawyer Kudzai Kadzere was beaten by members of the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP), leaving him with a fractured hand that required surgery.

The In Depth Collection

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